Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America.

Recently, there has been substantial effort to understand the fundamental characteristics of warm ocean temperature extremes-known as marine heatwaves (MHWs). However, MHW research has primarily focused on the surface signature of these events. While surface MHWs (SMHW) can have dramatic impacts on marine ecosystems, extreme warming along the seafloor can also have significant biological outcomes. In this study, we use a high-resolution (~8 km) ocean reanalysis to broadly assess bottom marine heatwaves (BMHW) along the continental shelves of North America. We find that BMHW intensity and duration varies strongly with bottom depth, with typical intensities ranging from ~0.5 °C-3 °C. Further, BMHWs can be more intense and persist longer than SMHWs. While BMHWs and SMHWs often co-occur, BMHWs can also exist without a SMHW. Deeper regions in which the mixed layer does not typically reach the seafloor exhibit less synchronicity between BMHWs and SMHWs.

An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)-extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences-have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid warming in recent decades. Here we show that this nonlinear trend can-on its own-appear to increase SST variance and hence MHW frequency. Using a Linear Inverse Model to separate climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability, both in observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, we find that most MHW increases resulted from regional mean climate trends that alone increased the probability of SSTs exceeding a MHW threshold. Our results suggest the need to carefully attribute global warming-induced changes in climate extremes, which may not always reflect underlying changes in variability.

The influence of pacific winds on ENSO diversity.

The differences in ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) spatial patterns, whether centered in the Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP) or in the eastern-central equatorial region ("canonical") have been associated to differences in atmospheric teleconnections and global impacts. However, predicting different types of ENSO events has proved challenging, highlighting the need for a deeper understanding of their predictability. Given the key role played by wind variations in the development and evolution of ENSO events, this study examines the relationship between the leading modes of Pacific surface wind speed variability and ENSO diversity using three different state-of-the-art wind products, including satellite observations and atmospheric reanalyses. Although previous studies have associated different ENSO precursors to either EP or CP events, our results indicate that the most prominent of those ENSO precursors are primarily related to canonical and CP events, and show little correlation with EP events. The latter are associated with tropical Pacific conditions favoring equatorial westerly wind and precipitation anomalies that extend all the way to the eastern Pacific. Results over the entire twentieth century period versus those during the satellite era also suggest that the influences from the Southern Hemisphere may be more robust than those from the Northern Hemisphere.

Decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific: Characteristics, causes, predictability, and prospects.

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño­Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. "Decadal," which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

Predictability of US West Coast Ocean Temperatures is not solely due to ENSO.

The causes of the extreme and persistent warming in the Northeast Pacific from the winter of 2013/14 to that of 2014/15 are still not fully understood. While global warming may have contributed, natural influences may also have played a role. El Niño events are often implicated in anomalously warm conditions along the US West Coast (USWC). However, the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were generally weak during 2014, calling into question their role in the USWC warming. In this study, we identify tropical Pacific "sensitivity patterns" that optimally force USWC warming at a later time. We find that such sensitivity patterns do not coincide with the mature SST anomaly patterns usually associated with ENSO, but instead include elements associated with ENSO SST precursors and SST anomalies in the central/western equatorial Pacific. El Niño events that produce large USWC warming, irrespective of their magnitude, do project on the sensitivity pattern and are characterized by a distinct evolution of the North Pacific atmospheric and oceanic fields. However, even weak tropical SST anomalies in the right location, and not necessarily associated with ENSO, can significantly influence USWC conditions and enhance their predictability.

Author Correction: El Niño-Southern Oscillation complexity.

In this Review, the middle initial of author Kim M. Cobb was omitted. The original Review has been corrected online.

Estimate of the average timing for strong El Niño events using the recharge oscillator model with a multiplicative perturbation.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific variability at interannual timescales. Through atmospheric teleconnections, ENSO exerts large influences worldwide, so that improved understanding of this phenomenon can be of critical societal relevance. Extreme ENSO events, in particular, have been associated with devastating weather events in many parts of the world, so that the ability to assess their frequency and probability of occurrence is extremely important. In this study, we describe the ENSO phenomenon in terms of the Recharge Oscillator Model perturbed by multiplicative deterministic chaotic forcing, and use methodologies from the field of Statistical Mechanics to determine the average time between El Niño events of given strengths. This is achieved by describing the system in terms of its probability density function, which is governed by a Fokker Planck equation, and then using the Mean First Passage Time technique for the determination of the mean time between extreme events. The ability to obtain analytical solutions to the problem allows a clear identification of the most relevant model parameters for controlling the frequency of extreme events. The key parameter is the strength of the multiplicative component of the stochastic perturbation, but the decorrelation timescale of the stochastic forcing is also very influential. Results obtained with this approach suggest an average waiting time between extreme events of only some tens of years.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation complexity.

El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.